Keynote Lecture – Rapid Earthquake Shaking & Loss Estimation Issues: Ground Motion Spatial Variability, Critical Infrastructure, and Financial Decision Making
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed several near–real-time earthquake information systems that provide rapid and automated alerting of shaking distribution, critical facility inspection priorities, and estimates of human and economic impact immediately following significant earthquakes. After briefly reviewing strategies for rapidly estimating shaking distribution and losses, we detail several recent advancements on these systems. Among others, we describe improved characterization of the spatial variability of ground shaking: By modeling the correlation of ground motion intensity measures (IMs) conditioned on station recordings, we demonstrate how spatial variability affects critical infrastructure and portfolio loss estimates, as well as financial instruments triggered by these systems (for example, cat bonds & contingency loans). We also provide an overview of tools we are developing for rapid landslide and liquefaction assessment that will complement shaking-based loss analyses.